October CPI: Prices Rise 0.4%, Hotter Than Forecast

U.S. consumer prices rose 0.4% in October, the Labor Department reported at 8:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday, November 10, 2026. That was faster than the 0.3% economists expected. Core prices, which leave out food and energy, rose 0.3%, also above the 0.2% forecast.

The report lands four weeks before the Federal Reserve's December 8–9 meeting, and it pushed traders further toward betting on another rate hike.

The key numbers

Sources: Labor Department figures as reported by StockTitan and Bitcoin Magazine; CBS News also reported the 0.4% headline rise. CBS cited a FactSet poll for the 0.3% headline forecast; StockTitan cited a Dow Jones survey for both forecasts.

Core prices have now risen 0.3% for three straight months (August, September and October), according to StockTitan.

What pushed prices up

• Gasoline: up 1.0% in the month.
• Food: up 0.5%.
• Energy overall: up 0.7%.
• Shelter (housing costs): up 0.3%.

StockTitan also reported that used car and truck prices fell 1.2% and that real average hourly earnings, meaning pay after inflation, were unchanged from September.

Why there is no annual inflation rate this month

The government did not publish a year-over-year inflation rate for October. The 2025 government shutdown stopped data collection, so there are no October 2025 prices to compare against, CBS News reported. The last official annual figures are for September 2026: 3.7% for all items and 2.6% for core. For more on how the Fed reads these numbers, see our October jobs report story, which showed 165,000 jobs added, a figure Waller also cited in his speech.

What it means for the Fed

Earlier on Tuesday, before the data came out, Fed Governor Christopher Waller told a conference in London: "I am leaning toward supporting an increase in our policy rate of 25 basis points at the FOMC's December meeting." He said a bigger move may be needed if October's data matched the past two months, with core CPI "around 0.3 percent or even higher." In that case, he said, "a 50 basis point hike in the policy rate should be considered at the December meeting." Core came in at exactly 0.3%.

After the data, CME FedWatch showed an 85% chance of a quarter-point hike in December and a 15% chance of a half-point hike, as of 9:42 a.m. ET, according to CoinDesk. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.98% from 4.88% late Monday, AP reported in a story updated at 9:57 a.m. ET.

What it means for you

Higher rates usually mean costlier mortgages, car loans and credit card balances, but better yields on savings and Treasury bills. Stocks fell after the report: as of 1:05 p.m. ET the Nasdaq was down 1.4% and the S&P 500 was down 0.8%, according to Yahoo Finance. If you are investing for the long run, our guide on how to start investing in stocks explains why steady plans tend to beat reacting to one data release. Bitcoin also fell; see our bitcoin price story.

The November CPI report is due December 10, the day after the Fed's decision.

This article is for information only and is not investment advice.