Daftar Isi
Starlink’s plan to become a full U.S. mobile carrier sent shares of established telecom companies sharply lower this week. The company behind it barely moved. As of press time on Monday, October 12, SpaceX stock (NASDAQ: SPCX) traded at $164.30, roughly where it sat before the announcement.
The bigger reaction came from Wall Street. Pivotal Research analyst Jeffrey Wlodarczak kept his “Buy” rating and raised his 12-month price target from $220 to $230, which implies about 40% upside from the press-time price. His case rests on SpaceX’s agreement to acquire a nationwide portfolio of low-band spectrum licenses, a deal the company made with the stated aim of becoming a major U.S. mobile carrier.
That gap between the market’s response and the analyst’s view is the story here. Investors punished incumbents for the threat Starlink poses, but they have not yet paid up for the upside to SpaceX itself. Whether that changes depends on how quickly the spectrum deal closes and how credible the company’s buildout costs prove to be.
Why Pivotal sees more room to run
Wlodarczak’s revision rests on two estimates, and both are aggressive.
A low-cost network
The first is cost. Pivotal estimates SpaceX could build its carrier network for about $10 billion. A conventional nationwide wireless buildout typically runs between $50 billion and $100 billion, according to the note. If SpaceX can deliver coverage at a fraction of that, the economics of competing with entrenched carriers look very different.
A large subscriber base
The second is scale. Pivotal projects SpaceX could reach 160 million subscribers worldwide by 2036. That figure is a ten-year forecast, not a near-term target, and readers should treat it as one analyst’s estimate rather than company guidance.
How SpaceX got here
The carrier ambition did not appear overnight. In September 2025, SpaceX agreed to buy wireless spectrum licenses from EchoStar in a deal valued at roughly $17 billion in cash and stock, a move widely read as a step toward direct-to-phone service. Starlink had already been offering satellite texting to phones through a partnership with T-Mobile. The new low-band spectrum agreement extends that path from a supplementary service toward a standalone carrier.
Where Wall Street stands on SpaceX stock
Pivotal’s new target is bullish, but not far outside the pack. Based on ratings published over the past three months, SpaceX stock carries a “Moderate Buy” consensus, according to data Finbold retrieved from TipRanks on October 12.
| Rating | Number of analysts |
|---|---|
| Buy | 28 |
| Hold | 5 |
| Sell | 2 |
| Total | 35 |
The average 12-month price target is $216, which points to roughly 31% upside from $164.30. Pivotal’s $230 sits about 6% above that average, so the note reinforces the existing optimism more than it breaks from it.
| Target | Price | Implied upside from $164.30 |
|---|---|---|
| Pivotal (previous) | $220 | 33.9% |
| Pivotal (new) | $230 | 40.0% |
| Consensus average | $216 | About 31% |
A muted reaction in the share price
For all the attention the carrier plan has drawn, the price action in SpaceX stock has been flat. At $164.30, shares were only slightly above their October 8 level and about 0.7% below the October 9 open, the first trading session after the announcement.
Recent price levels
The stock also failed to hold a move above $170 earlier this month. Even so, it remains above its two key post-listing reference points.
| Reference point | Price | SPCX change to $164.30 |
|---|---|---|
| IPO price | $135.00 | +21.7% |
| First closing price | $160.95 | +2.1% |
| Early-October high | Above $170 | Below |
What to watch next
Several open questions will likely decide whether the share price catches up with analyst targets. Regulatory approval for the spectrum acquisition is one. Evidence that the $10 billion buildout estimate holds up is another. Any detail from SpaceX on pricing, timelines, or launch markets for carrier service would give investors something more concrete than forecasts to price in.
For now, the market has delivered a clear verdict on the incumbents and a cautious one on SpaceX. Figures in this article reflect prices and ratings as of October 12 and may have changed since.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and This content is for informational purposes only and not investment advice.
