Can the Jordan-Israel peace treaty survive damage done from the Gaza War? – Atlantic Council

Can the Jordan-Israel Peace Treaty Endure Amidst the Gaza Conflict?

The ongoing Gaza conflict has raised significant concerns regarding the stability of the Jordan-Israel peace treaty, which has been a cornerstone of Middle Eastern diplomacy since its signing in 1994. As tensions escalate in the region, questions arise: How will this renewed violence impact Jordan’s relationship with Israel? What role does public sentiment in Jordan play in the future of this treaty? Understanding these dynamics is crucial as both nations navigate the complexities of regional peace and security.

The Historical Context of the Treaty

The peace treaty between Jordan and Israel marked a pivotal moment in Middle Eastern history. Signed on October 26, 1994, the agreement established diplomatic relations and aimed to resolve longstanding territorial disputes. Jordan, under King Hussein, became the second Arab nation to recognize Israel, following Egypt’s lead in 1979. This treaty was not just a political maneuver; it was a commitment to stability in a tumultuous region.

Since its signing, the treaty has facilitated cooperation on various fronts, including trade, security, and water access. However, the peace has never been wholly embraced by the Jordanian populace, where sentiments towards Israel remain mixed, especially during times of conflict involving Palestinians.

Current Tensions and the Gaza Conflict

The recent outbreak of violence in Gaza has reignited tensions between Israel and its Arab neighbors, including Jordan. The ongoing hostilities have led to increased protests in Jordan, with many citizens expressing solidarity with the Palestinian cause. This shift in public sentiment poses a significant challenge for Jordan’s leadership, which must balance domestic pressures with the strategic alliance it maintains with Israel.

According to a poll conducted by the Arab Barometer in 2023, approximately 78% of Jordanians view Israel unfavorably, a sentiment that has been exacerbated by the recent escalation in Gaza. The Jordanian government is acutely aware that public opinion can influence its foreign policy, particularly regarding its relationship with Israel.

The Strategic Importance of the Treaty

Despite public dissent, the Jordan-Israel peace treaty serves strategic interests for both nations. For Jordan, the treaty provides security and economic benefits. Jordan relies on Israel for water resources, which are scarce in the arid region. In return, Israel values Jordan’s stability as a buffer against the chaos that often spills over from neighboring countries, particularly during conflicts involving Palestinians.

The U.S. has played a significant role in supporting the peace treaty, often providing financial assistance to Jordan. According to the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), Jordan received over $1.6 billion in aid in 2022, a significant portion of which is tied to the stability fostered by the peace agreement with Israel. This aid is crucial for Jordan, which faces substantial economic challenges, including high unemployment and refugee inflows.

Navigating Domestic and International Pressures

King Abdullah II of Jordan faces a complex political landscape where he must navigate both internal dissent and international expectations. The king has openly criticized Israel’s actions in Gaza, calling for an immediate ceasefire and urging the international community to intervene. His stance is an attempt to align with the sentiments of his citizens while maintaining diplomatic relations with Israel.

Moreover, Jordan’s role as a custodian of Islamic holy sites in Jerusalem adds another layer of complexity. The Al-Aqsa Mosque is a focal point for many Jordanians, and any perceived threat to its status can inflame tensions further. The Jordanian government’s ability to assert its influence over these sites is vital for maintaining its legitimacy in the eyes of its citizens.

Future Prospects of the Peace Treaty

The future of the Jordan-Israel peace treaty hangs in the balance. Analysts warn that if the violence continues unabated, it could lead to a deterioration of relations between the two countries. The potential for a renewed peace process hinges on both parties’ willingness to engage in dialogue and address the root causes of the conflict.

In a recent statement, Dr. Khalil Shikaki, a prominent Palestinian political analyst, emphasized the need for a comprehensive approach to peace in the region. “Without addressing the underlying issues, including the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, any attempt to stabilize relations will be superficial,” he said.

The Role of the International Community

The international community, particularly the United States and European nations, plays a crucial role in mediating peace efforts in the region. Diplomatic interventions may be necessary to help both Jordan and Israel navigate the current crisis and reinforce the importance of their treaty. Historical precedents show that external pressure can yield positive outcomes when addressing regional conflicts.

For example, the Camp David Accords in 1978, which led to the Egypt-Israel peace treaty, were facilitated by U.S. mediation. Similarly, the U.S. has the potential to push for a broader dialogue that includes addressing the humanitarian needs of Palestinians, thus easing tensions that threaten Jordan’s stability.

The Impact of Regional Dynamics

The broader geopolitical landscape also affects the Jordan-Israel relationship. The rise of Iran and its influence in the region, particularly through proxy groups like Hezbollah and Hamas, poses a security threat to both Israel and Jordan. As both nations face the potential for increased instability, their partnership becomes even more critical.

Additionally, the normalization agreements that Israel has signed with several Arab nations in recent years—collectively referred to as the Abraham Accords—have changed the dynamics in the region. While these agreements have been hailed as steps toward peace, they also complicate Jordan’s position, as it must now navigate relationships with both Israel and its Arab neighbors who may have different stances on the Palestinian issue.

Public Sentiment and its Consequences

The critical challenge for King Abdullah II lies in managing public sentiment, which has historically been pro-Palestinian. The king’s ability to maintain the peace treaty while also addressing the concerns of his citizens will be crucial in the coming months. If protests continue to grow, it could lead to increased pressure on the Jordanian government to reevaluate its ties with Israel.

In this delicate balance, the king has attempted to foster a narrative that emphasizes Jordan’s role as a mediator and advocate for Palestinian rights. This approach aims to reassure the Jordanian public of their government’s commitment to the Palestinian cause while preserving a strategic partnership with Israel.

Conclusion

As the situation in Gaza evolves, the Jordan-Israel peace treaty will face unprecedented challenges. The interplay between public sentiment, regional dynamics, and international involvement will be critical in determining whether this treaty can endure. Both nations must navigate these treacherous waters carefully to maintain stability in a region that has long been fraught with conflict.

FAQ

Q: What is the Jordan-Israel peace treaty?
A: The Jordan-Israel peace treaty, signed in 1994, established diplomatic relations between the two nations and aimed to resolve territorial disputes, fostering cooperation in various areas like trade and security.

Q: How has the Gaza conflict affected Jordan’s public opinion on Israel?
A: The Gaza conflict has intensified negative sentiments towards Israel among Jordanians, with a recent poll indicating that 78% of the population views Israel unfavorably.

Q: What strategic benefits does Jordan gain from the peace treaty?
A: Jordan benefits from security cooperation and crucial water resources provided by Israel, which are essential for the country’s survival in a water-scarce region.

Q: What challenges does King Abdullah II face regarding the treaty?
A: King Abdullah II must balance growing public dissent against Israel with the need to maintain a strategic alliance that ensures Jordan’s security and economic stability.